Improving Models of Nutrient Loading and Harmful Algal Blooms though a Watershed-scale Approach that Emphasizes Soil Health and Upland Farming Practices

Dates: July 16-18, 2018

Leads: Tom Zimnicki, Michigan Environmental Council; Robyn Wilson, Ohio State University; Craig Stow, NOAA-GLERL; Mark Rowe, UM-CIGLR

GLERL Research Program: Integrated Physical and Ecological Modeling and Forecasting

Goals: The focus of this summit is to improve predictive models for harmful algae blooms (HABs) in Lakes Erie and Huron (Saginaw Bay). We will focus on watershed-level approaches that:

• Maximize use of emerging and already available Big Data (field-scale) within agriculture and
• Incorporate a range of soil-health measures and adoption of soil-health best management practices (BMPs) at-scale.
Participating stakeholders and experts will collaborate to address the following specific goals:
• Assess and summarize the current state of science of HAB modeling including predictive capacity;
• Identify gaps in research and knowledge that need to be filled to improve these models with specific respect to the upland watershed scale, and soils data;
• Develop (or at least outline/plan) an improved wastershed-scale model for predicting HABs that fully accounts for upland soil health factors by leveraging field-scale information.
• Consider policy solutions and other priorities for hastening application of soil health management BMPs.

Agenda: Click here to download

Products: Coming out of our three-day workshop, we expect to produce a short white paper or compilation of research—with a publicly accessible executive summary—that will capture:

• Our current ability to link field-scale data soil health metrics with predicting nutrient loading and HABs in the Great Lakes;
• The gaps in current research that limit at-scale, watershed-level modeling efforts;
• A draft working model for predicting HABs that incorporates variables related to upland soil health and adoption of soil amendment practices at the watershed level; and
• Recommended policy approaches for addressing agricultural practices in vulnerable watersheds, based on soil health strategies that are informed by better predictive models.

In the final of those sections, we will specifically consider: assessments of current conservation strategies to reduce HABs on Lake Erie and Lake Huron (Saginaw Bay); opportunities for partnerships with municipal soil waste and organic material diversion operations (for compost); and prospective manure management guidelines.