Great Lakes Seminar Series – September 14, 2016

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Please join us for a Great Lakes Seminar Series presentation:

Wednesday, September 14, 1:30 – 2:30 pm EDT 

NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory – Lake Superior Hall* (Directions)

*Remote participation is available via webinar. To participate remotely, please register at: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/7452933293433243148.

**Registration for on-site attendance is not required, however please note important visitor information (click on main heading above)**

Presenters: Dr. Andre R. Erler
Title: High-resolution Dynamically Downscaled Climate Projections for the Great Lakes Region
Abstract: The regional impact of climate change, in particular on the hydrological cycle, is of great interest to society and policy makers. The Laurentian Great Lakes exert a significant influence on the climate of the surrounding regions; however, they are often only poorly or not at all represented in Global Climate Models. The work presented here is based on an ensemble of dynamically downscaled regional climate projections for the Great Lakes region at a resolution of 10km, which is forced by a smaller suite of global climate projections, as well as ERA-interim reanalysis. The regional climate model employed for this work is the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF V3.4), which, for this purpose, was coupled to an interactive fresh water lake model (FLake; c.f. Gula & Peltier 2012). The representation of the regional climate as well as lake surface properties will be discussed and compared to observations. Particular emphasis will be placed on the representation of the lake effect in the lee of the Great Lakes; time permitting, sensitivity tests with different representations of the lakes and different moist physics parameterizations will also be discussed. Based on these simulations, the potential longer term (i.e. 2050 and 2100) climate change impacts will be analyzed, including changes to the hydrological cycle in watersheds within the Great Lakes region. Particular emphasis will be put on the effect of climate change on the lakes themselves, as well as the impact on hydro-climatic extremes such as heavy precipitation, floods and droughts.

Bio: Dr. Erler is a Climate Scientist at Aquanty Inc. His main expertise lies in regional climate modeling and applications to hydrology and hydro-climatic extremes. Originally from Germany, he received the equivalent of a M.Sc. in Meteorology from the University of Mainz in 2008 and a Ph.D. in Physics from the University of Toronto in 2015. For his dissertation he performed high resolution climate simulations for western Canada and studied hydrological impacts of climate change in the Athabasca and Fraser river basins, as well as changes in precipitation extremes due to climate change. Andre joined Aquanty in 2016 in order to study the impact of climate change on water resources and agriculture in Canada and provide insights into climate change impacts to end-users. Andre is an early-career researcher and climate modeler; he runs regional and global climate models at the SciNet High Performance Computing facility and analyses their output. He uses Python and its scientific software stack for data handling (or “data plumbing”), analysis and visualization, and develops tools for these tasks. Andre is also interested in machine learning and the use of data science techniques in and outside of climate science, and is somewhat concerned about the state of software development in science. He cares deeply about open source software, open science, the environment and sustainable global development.

**Registration is not required, however please note important visitor information**

Important Visitor Information
All in-person seminar attendees are required to receive a visitor badge from the front desk at the NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory facility. Seminar attendees need to present a valid U.S. photo ID or green card. If you are a Foreign National, advance notification of at least 48 hours is needed so that security guidelines are followed. You will need to present your passport (a copy will NOT work). For questions regarding building access, or assistance in obtaining Foreign National clearance, please call 734-741-2393. Email contact: [email protected]

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Questions? Contact Mary Ogdahl: [email protected]