Great Lakes Observing & Forecasting Systems

Great Lakes Restoration Initiative Climate Project: Regional Modeling for Application to Decision-making

Overview and Objectives

This objective of this project is the development and application of models for the physical portion of the Great Lakes regional climate. It enhances the range of scenarios of climate change influences from those available currently. The full range of physical variables in the system is allowed to interact with the quantity of water supply in the basin, rather than only assumed or fitted relationship with air temperature and precipitation. Development of a model that incorporates full dynamical treatment of ice within the context of a 3-dimensional lake circulation model was advanced, and this year we planned to make further steps toward coupling of this model to an interactive atmosphere. Current availability of regional climate simulation results was enhanced through a greater variety of application of existing models, additional analysis of the results, and dissemination to those engaged in assessing impacts and decision-making.


Nevers, M. B., M. Byappanahalli, M.S. Phanikumar and R. L. Whitman, 2015, Fecal Indicator Organism Modeling and Microbial Source Tracking in Environmental Waters, Chapter 3.4.6 in Manual of Environmental Microbiology, 4th Edition, Edited by Marylynn V. Yates, Cindy H. Nakatsu, Robert V. Miller, Suresh D. Pillai (ASM Press, Washington DC), pp. 3.4.6-1 to 3.4.6-16, ISBN: 9781555816025.

Notaro, M., V. Bennington, and B. M. Lofgren, 2015: Dynamical downscaling-based projections of Great Lakes’ water levels. J. Climate, 28, 9721-9745.

Notaro, M., V. Bennington, and S. Vavrus, 2015: Dynamically downscaled projections of lake-effect snow in the Great Lakes Basin. J. Climate, 28, 1661-1684.

Qiu, H., J. Niu, and M. S. Phanikumar, Quantifying the Space-Time Variability of Water Balance Components in a Great Lakes Basin using a Process-Based Hydrologic Model and the Budyko Framework, Journal of Hydrology. (in review)

Safaie, A., C. Dang, H. Radha, and M. S. Phanikumar, Manifold Methods for Assimilating Geophysical and Meteorological Data in Earth System Models and their Components, Journal of Hydrology. (in review)

Xiao, C., and Y. Zhang, 2015: Projected changes of East Asian eddy-driven jet in winter from CMIP5 experiments. Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 6008-6013, doi:10.1002/2015GL064641.

Wang, L., Y. Qian, Y. Zhang, L. R. Leung, A. Huang, and C. Xiao, 2016: Observed variability of summer precipitation pattern and extreme events in China associated with variations of the East Asian summer monsoon. Int. J. Climatol., 36, 2942–2957, doi:10.1002/joc.4530

Xiao, C., Y. Zhang, B. M. Lofgren, and Y. Nie, 2016: The Concurrent variability of East Asian subtropical and polar-front jets and its implication for the winter climate anomaly in China. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., doi:10.1002/2016JD025038.

Xiao, C., B. Lofgren, and J. Wang: WRF-based assessment of the Great Lakes’ impact on cold season synoptic cyclones. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. (in review)

Xiao, C., B. M. Lofgren, J. Wang, and P. Y. Chu, 2016a: Improving the lake scheme within a coupled WRF-Lake model in the Great Lakes. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst. (in review)

Xiao, C., B. M. Lofgren, J. Wang, and P. Y. Chu, 2016b: A dynamical downscaling study in the Laurentian Great Lakes region using a coupled WRF-Lake model. J. Hydrometeorology. (in review)


Dang, C., A. Safaie, M.S. Phanikumar and H. Radha, Wind speed and direction estimation using manifold approximation, The 14th ACM International Conference on Information Processing in Sensor Networks (IPSN), April 13-16, Seattle, WA, 2015

Safaie, A., C. Dang, H. Radha, and M. S. Phanikumar, Application of Manifold Methods for Data Assimilation in Integrated Earth System Models, Abstract # H51G-1452, American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA, 14-18 December 2015.

Safaie, A., T. D. Nguyen, E. Litchman, and M.S. Phanikumar, Circulation and Thermal Structure in Michigan’s Inland Lakes: A Comparative Analysis Across Lakes, AGU-ASLO Ocean Sciences Meeting, 21-26 February, New Orleans, LA. Abstract # PO24A-2920, pp. 135 (2016)

Xiao, C., WRF-Hydro Modeling System: A Startup in the Great Lakes Region. Great Lakes Basin-Wide Binational Hydrological Forecasting Stakeholder Exchange and Model Development Workshop, Ann Arbor, MI, June 14-16, 2016.

Xiao, C., and B. M. Lofgren, Hydroclimatological Responses of the Laurentian Great Lakes to Global Warming. 59th Annual Conference of the International Association for Great Lakes Research, University of Guelph, Guelph, ON, June 6-10, 2016.

Xiao, C., Projected hydroclimatology in the Great Lakes region in the 21st Century (Lightning Talk). Water @ Michigan Workshop, Water Center, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, January 21, 2016.

Xiao, C., and B. M. Lofgren, A Dynamical Downscaling Study in the Great Lakes Region Using the WRF/Lake Model: Historical Simulation and Future Projection (Poster). 96th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, New Orleans, LA, January 11-14, 2016.